We all dream about winning the lottery, but few know the odds of winning it are less than that of “posessed by Satan.” (1 in 146,107,962 vs 1 in 7,000). So here are some odds about things that we all dream about or fear.
Odds of being struck by lightning: 1 in 576,000
Odds of dating a supermodel: 1 in 88,000
Odds of an American home having at least one container of ice cream in the freezer: 9 in 10
Odds of dying from contact with hot tap water: 1 in 5,005,564
Odds of writing a New York Times best seller: 1 in 220
Odds of finding a four-leaf clover on the first try: 1 in 10,000
Odds of being killed by lightning: 1 in 2,320,000
Odds of being murdered: 1 in 18,000
Odds of getting away with murder: 1 in 2
Odds of being attacked by a dog: 1 in 131,890
Odds of dying from a dog bite: 1 in 700,000
Odds of being bitten by a snake, bee or other venomous creature: 1 in 83,930
Odds of dying from contact with a venomous animal or plant: 1 in 3,441,325
Odds of dying from any kind of injury during the next year: 1 in 1,820
Odds of dying from being bitten or struck by mammals (other than dogs or humans): 1 in 4,235,477
Odds of dying from a shark attack: 1 in 300,000,000
Odds of having fraternal twins: 3 in 1,000 (for a woman younger than 20)
Odds of having fraternal twins: 14 in 1,000 (for women ages 35-40)
Odds that a person between the age of 18 and 29 does not read a newspaper regularly: 1 in 3
Odds that an adult does not want to live to age 120 under any circumstances: 2 in 3
Odds of being considered possessed by Satan: 1 in 7,000
Odds that a first marriage will survive without separation or divorce for 15 years: 1 in 1.3
Odds that a celebrity marriage will last a lifetime: 1 in 3
Odds of getting hemorrhoids: 1 in 25
Odds of being born a twin in North America: 1 in 90
Odds of being on plane with a drunken pilot: 1 in 117
Odds of being audited by the IRS: 1 in 175
Odds of having your identity stolen: 1 in 200
Odds of dating a millionaire: 1 in 215
Odds of finding out your child is a genius: 1 in 250
Odds of catching a ball at a major league ballgame: 1 in 563
Odds of becoming a pro athlete: 1 in 22,000
Odds of a person in the military winning the Medal of Honor: 1 in 11,000
Odds of winning an Academy Award: 1 in 11,500
Odds of striking it rich on Antiques Roadshow: 1 in 60,000
Odds of getting a royal flush in poker on first five cards dealt: 1 in 649,740
Odds of becoming a saint: 1 in 20,000,000
Odds of becoming president: 1 in 10,000,000
Odds of a meteor landing on your house: 1 in 182,138,880,000,000
Odds of dying from intentional self-harm: 1 in 9,380
Odds that Earth will experience a catastrophic collision with an asteroid in the next 100 years: 1 in 5,560
Odds of dying in such a collision: 1 in 20,000
Odds of experiencing an earthquake: 1 in 100,000
Odds of dying from exposure to forces of nature (heat, cold, lightning, earthquake, flood): 1 in 225,107
Odds of dying in an airplane accident: 1 in 354,319
Odds of dying from choking on food: 1 in 370,035
Odds of dying in a terrorist attack while visiting a foreign country: 1 in 650,000
Odds of dying in a fireworks accident: 1 in 1,000,000
Odds of dying from overexertion, travel or privation: 1 in 1,428,377
Odds of dying from food poisoning: 1 in 3,000,000
Odds of dying from legal execution: 1 in 3,441,325
Odds of dying from parts falling off an airplane: 1 in 10,000,000
Odds of dying from ignition or melting of nightwear: 1 in 30,589,556
Odds of spotting a UFO today: 1 in 3,000,000
Odds of contracting the human version of mad cow disease: 1 in 40,000,000
Odds of injury from fireworks: 1 in 19,556
Odds of injury from shaving: 1 in 6,585
Odds of injury from using a chain saw: 1 in 4,464
Odds of injury from mowing the lawn: 1 in 3,623
Odds of fatally slipping in bath or shower: 1 in 2,232
Odds of drowning in a bathtub: 1 in 685,000
Odds of being the victim of serious crime in your lifetime: 1 in 20
Odds of dying from a car accident: 1 in 18,585
Odds of dying from any kind of fall: 1 in 20,666
Odds of dying from accidental drowning: 1 in 79,065
Sources: “Life: The Odds,” by Gregory Baer; National Center for Health Statistics, CDC; American Lung Association; American Cancer Society; National Safety Council; International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies; World Health Organization; USGS; Clark Chapman, SwRI; David Morrison, NASA; Michael Paine, Planetary Society Australian Volunteers
Interesting! But someone who has never left Kansas probably has better odds of surviving a shark attack than a surfer in Australia, I would think, and the odds of getting hurt by a chainsaw don’t really apply to someone who has/will never use one. Stats are interesting and useful, but often difficult to apply practically.
By: montucky on July 21, 2008
at 12:44 am
True, I just found the article interesting.
By: scienceguy288 on July 21, 2008
at 1:52 pm
My thought was something similar to Montucky’s. While these odds statements are clever and thought-provoking, as a scientist, I’d have to know a lot more about the samples on which the odds were based. Still lots of fun to read through these, though, and to think about the relative risks.
Bobbie
By: The Right Blue on July 21, 2008
at 8:48 pm
The things we may fear most are often the most unlikely to happen. Media promotes a lot of our fears. They will report a person killed by lightning (as happened to a local young man here last week) but they don’t report that someone found a four leaf clover.
By: Ruth on July 22, 2008
at 12:44 pm
Or the big shark craze, or the snake thing…
By: scienceguy288 on July 22, 2008
at 1:52 pm
That was odd.
I have to agree with Montucky to some extent… Some of the categories need further clarification. I mean, I cut my self every other time I shave. Maybe I’m just a klutz, but I can’t believe that it’s only 1 in over 6,000.
Are they factoring in children?
By: briansrapier on July 29, 2008
at 7:46 pm
I must say that I don’t know. I got it from:
Sources: “Life: The Odds,” by Gregory Baer; National Center for Health Statistics, CDC; American Lung Association; American Cancer Society; National Safety Council; International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies; World Health Organization; USGS; Clark Chapman, SwRI; David Morrison, NASA; Michael Paine, Planetary Society Australian Volunteers
I just thought some of them were fun and interesting.
By: scienceguy288 on July 30, 2008
at 1:19 am